How Donald Trump Secured a Breakthrough in Gaza But Struggles With Putin Concerning the Ukraine Conflict
Accounts of an upcoming US-Russia leadership summit have been overstated, it seems.
Just days after Donald Trump announced he planned to confer with Russia's leader Putin in the Hungarian capital - "within two weeks or so" - the summit has been suspended indefinitely.
A preliminary meeting by the both countries' leading diplomats has been cancelled, as well.
"I prefer not to have a fruitless discussion," President Trump informed the press at the White House on a recent weekday. "I don't want a waste of time, so I will observe what transpires."
- Trump states he wished to avoid a 'unproductive session' after plan for Putin talks postponed
- Disappointment in Kyiv as President Zelensky leaves White House without results
The on-again, off-again summit is another twist in Trump's attempts to broker an conclusion to hostilities in Ukraine – a subject of increased attention for the US president after he arranged a truce and prisoner exchange deal in the Palestinian territory.
During a speech in the North African country last week to celebrate that truce deal, the president turned to his lead diplomatic negotiator, with a new request.
"We have to get the Russian situation done," he declared.
Nonetheless, the circumstances that aligned to make a Middle East success achievable for the negotiation team may be difficult to duplicate in a conflict in Ukraine that has been raging for nearing four years.
Reduced Influence
According to Witkoff, the key to achieving a deal was the Israeli government's decision to attack Hamas negotiators in the Gulf state. It was a action that infuriated US partners in the Arab world but provided Trump bargaining power to pressure Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu into reaching an agreement.
The US president gained from a history of siding with the Israeli state dating back to his initial presidency, encompassing his decision to move the US embassy to the contested city, to change US policy on the legality of Jewish communities in the occupied territories and, more recently, his support for Israel's military campaign against the Islamic Republic.
The American leader, in fact, is better regarded among Israelis than Netanyahu – a situation that provided him with unique influence over the nation's head.
Combine Trump's connections in politics and business to key Arab players in the region, and he had a wealth of negotiating strength to secure an deal.
Regarding the conflict in Ukraine, by contrast, the president has significantly reduced leverage. In recent months, he has swung between efforts to strong-arm Putin and then Zelensky, all with little seeming effect.
The US leader has warned to impose new sanctions on Russian energy exports and to provide Ukraine with advanced missile systems. But he has also recognised that such actions could harm the world's financial stability and intensify the conflict.
At the same time, the president has criticized openly Zelensky, temporarily cutting off intelligence-sharing with Ukraine and suspending arms shipments to the nation - only to then back off in the face of concerned European allies who caution a Ukrainian collapse could destabilise the whole area.
The president loves to tout his ability to meet and negotiate agreements, but his face-to-face meetings with the Russian and Ukrainian leaders have not appeared to advance the war any closer to a peaceful end.
The Russian president may in fact be exploiting Trump's desire for a deal – and belief in in-person deal-making - as a means of manipulating him.
In July, Putin consented to a high-level meeting in Alaska at the time when it seemed probable that Trump would sign off on legislative penalties backed by GOP senators. That bill was afterwards delayed.
Recently, as reports spread that the US administration was seriously contemplating sending long-range missiles and air defense systems to Ukraine, the Russian leader phoned Trump who then touted the potential meeting in Budapest.
The following day, the president welcomed Zelensky at the executive residence, but left without agreements after a allegedly strained discussion.
Trump maintained that he was not being played by Putin.
"You know, I have been manipulated all my life by skilled operators, and I emerged successfully," he said.
However the president of Ukraine later made note of the timeline of developments.
"As soon as the issue of advanced weaponry became a little further away for Ukraine – for Ukraine – the Russian side almost automatically became less interested in negotiations," he stated.
So, in a short period, the president has bounced from considering the idea of sending missiles to the Eastern European country to organizing a meeting in Hungary with Putin and privately pressuring Zelensky to surrender all of Donbas – even land Russia has been failed to capture.
He has ultimately decided on advocating a truce along current battle lines – something the Russian government has rejected.
During his election campaign last year, the candidate vowed that he could resolve the Ukraine war in a very short time. He has since abandoned that pledge, saying that ending the hostilities is proving more difficult than he expected.
It has been a rare acknowledgement of the limits of his authority – and the difficulty of establishing a framework for peace when both parties desires, or can afford to, cease hostilities.